Alex Update - Predicted Flood Areas and Rainfall Rates

Alex continues to slowly strengthen and is making a path toward South Texas and extreme northern Mexico. Ahead of this tropical system, easterly and northeasterly flow to its north is pulling in large amounts of moisture from the northern Gulf. This moisture, combined with a weakness aloft and daytime heating will continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next 24 hours ahead of Alex. This activity has the potential to create locally heavy rain with some isolated flash flooding. This may become a major concern. Some of these storms may have rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. This is enough rain to cause problems due to flooding in low lying areas as well as more urban areas.

As Alex makes landfall to our south by late Wednesday, even more moisture will push onshore and make its way into South Central Texas. It appears that the main threat from this system will be locally heavy rain and possible flooding. Here is the latest graphic showing the rainfall estimates that are forecast by meteorologists. There are 3 to 4 inches of rain being forecast. There are some isolated totals of 6 inches or more that are generally being forecast for southern areas of South Central Texas. As the center of Alex is forecast to be well south of the area, we do not expect to have sustained tropical storm force winds. Breezy conditions ranging from 15 to 30 mph may occur generally south of a line from Del Rio to San Antonio to Cuero. The strongest winds (20-30 mph) will most likely occur Wednesday night with the possibility of some slightly higher gusts. These forecast wind speeds can also be found on the graphic. However, with any thunderstorm, there is always a threat of wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with some reaching speeds as high as 50 mph or more.

Any sort of tornado threat appears to be small. If we do get a threat for small tropical tornadoes, this threat would likely occur Wednesday night or Thursday as rain bands from Alex rotate west and northwest into the area. This would mainly impact southern areas of South Central Texas.

If the remnants of Alex head west as forecast, we will continue to see a threat of heavy rainfall through Friday. The threat may in fact then turn into a river flood threat for areas along the Rio Grande River. This will most likely be in areas near Eagle Pass and Del Rio. The second picture shows the possibility of this threat as well.

Overall, the threat for South Central Texas appears to be mainly heavy rain. Some southern areas may get isolated rainfall totals of 6 inches or more over the next several days.

Stay informed by going to the National Weather Service webpage www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx and continue to monitor the latest forecasts and tracks of Alex as it approaches.

We are not "looking down the barrel" at this point, but we may be "standing too close to the target.”

Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.

Riverwalker

Looking Down The Barrel

Hey RW, you inspired me to post over at KISS. Something you might enjoy, having posted extensively on lightning and such! The beginning of a hurricane in pictures. Y'all check it out, I'll be posting updates as things get "interesting"...

http://mayberry-keepitsimplestupid.blogspot.com/2010/06/looking-down-barrel.html

Update on Alex

Tropical storm Alex, currently located in the Bay of Campeche, is expected to gather strength slowly over the next 24 hrs as it moves to the west-northwest. Over the weekend the projected track of the storm, first moved toward Central Mexico, then at 04:00 this morning began moving northward. As can be seen in the picture above, hurricane tracking has a historic 250-300 mile error range after 48 hrs. With the current expected landfall strength of Category 2, and the large diameter of the system, any land fall over the Rio Grande Valley, could mean significant rain fall with the possibility of flash flooding in low lying areas across South Texas and possibly as far north as the Hill Country. As with all related tropical systems, we will have a better idea of the impact area(s) and potential outcomes to Central Texas and other areas of the state within the next 36-48 hrs. This system should be watched closely. If you aren't prepared already, better get started now.

We are not "looking down the barrel" at this point, but we are certainly "standing on the wrong end of the shooting range".

Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.

Riverwalker

Prepping Skills - How to Build Pallets

If you would like to know how to build some pallets for storage of your food or gear items, there is a great post on this at Getting Started In Emergency Preparedness.

You can read the post here:

http://gsiep.blogspot.com/2010/06/building-pallets.html

Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.

Riverwalker

Top Ten Prepping Mistakes - Mistake #2 - Lack of Skills

While it is great to be prepared, placing too much faith in the “stuff” you may have accumulated to aid in your survival won’t always be enough. That “stuff” may not always be there. If your “stuff” should suddenly become unavailable, it is your skills that will save you.

Food stores may only feed you for a short time but your gardening skills will help keep you fed for a lot longer. A first aid kit is a necessary item but only becomes truly useful if you have the skill to make it work. Having a shelter is a good thing but having the skills to repair it yourself if it is damaged can be invaluable. Having a great rifle will be of little use if you don’t have the skill to use it safely and properly. All the bullets in the world won’t help you if you can’t hit your target.

Having skills that you can rely on in a crunch can be more important than you may realize. Never discount the value of your skills and always seek out any opportunity to learn new skills or improve those skills you already possess.

Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.

Riverwalker

Top Ten Prepping Mistakes - Mistake #1 - Lack of Planning

Many people realize the importance of being prepared but sometimes can create more problems than they solve if it is not done properly. First and foremost of the things you should do is to formulate a plan for your survival and the survival of your family. You will need a plan. It may not be the best plan but it will be a plan. Without a plan, you may find yourself wondering what to do next if the worst happens.

Always do your own research and develop a plan that will fit your needs and the needs of your family. While there are a great many sources of valuable information that is available, not all that information may be accurate, reliable or applicable to your own situation. Everyone will have different needs that will need to be addressed by their own individual plan that will provide for their survival.

Planning is one of those intangible resources that cannot be neglected if you wish to be properly prepared. In a perfect world, a single plan might work for everyone but the sad truth is that we live in an always changing and slightly less than perfect world.

Your planning should address a variety of different factors. Some of these factors include your location, your climate, your resources (both tangible and intangible) and any special needs your family may have. All of these different factors and others can create unique and special circumstances that you will need to plan for ahead of time if you want to survive.

The best plan is the one that addresses the individual needs of you and your family.

Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.

Riverwalker