RW, I have not checked in quite a while, glad to see that the Preppers' Networks have taken off.
I was doing a garage cleanout and realized I needed to rotate my gas. Here are some thoughts. My gasoline storage serves one primary purpose: keeping enough gas on hand for the generator. During Ike, I had three plastic gas cans (about 20 gallons total), in addition to the gas in the generator itself. All told, I had enough for several days of running the generator to keep the fridge/freezer cold and running the window unit in the house. This allowed me the flexibility to stay for three days after the storm to evaluate damage, clean out freezers (mine, my parents, and my mother in laws), and check on loved ones houses.
Once those days passed, I went ahead and evacuated since it became apparent that we would be without utilities for 2-3 weeks. Once I returned, I dutifully refilled my gas cans, minus one I returned from where I borrowed it, and promptly forgot about them. This past weekend, I caught myself letting my car's tank run near empty. I rarely let it get below half a tank. Since I needed to rotate the gas, I filled up with the cans. Easy enough, I thought. Wrong. The bigger can (about 8 gallons), has one of the new over-engineered, locking, no emission, childproof caps. This “expletive deleted” of a gas cap was not long enough to fit in my car's tank. So, I had to use the smaller gas can, empty it into the gas tank. Then refill it using the bigger can. This took significantly longer than it should have. I am not too young to remember long metal spouts that simply dispensed gas when the can was tilted. Now, the locking hub has a separate set of directions on proper usage.
The part of this episode that worries me is the secondary reason that I keep gas at the house. The proximity to refineries and a rail line keep me on alert for an emergency evacuation due to a spill or chemical cloud. I like to think I could be out the door with wife, baby, dogs, BOBs, food, etc in only a few minutes. If I were relying on the stored gas to top off the tanks, I would waste that much more time. This 'dry run' for filling up the car showed me how reliant I am on a simple task I had never performed before.
In a real emergency, the highways would be filling up while I was still in my driveway. Keeping a proper amount of fuel on hand is not the hard part (for now, at least). An item as simple as a funnel can mean the difference between getting my loved ones out of harm's way and getting stuck in traffic. This seemingly minor thing could have a tremendous impact should an emergency arise. True, I could likely improvise a funnel to speed the process along, but I'd rather know for sure. This humbling experience has fortunately caused me to pause and re-evaluate many of my preps and plans. I hope this can be of some use to readers at TPN.
Sincerely,
Luke N Beaumont
Post Script
This continuing economic landslide we are in is showing itself more and more in this area, long considered to be insulated from the mortgage meltdown and its fallout. Refineries are shuttering expansion projects and starting small scale layoffs. First, contractors are let go, then maybe a few workers or a 'temporary' shutdown of a unit happens. I have also begun to see more homeless out on the streets along with some increases in our crime rate. Down the road in Port Arthur, gang and street violence continues to escalate. Keep your eyes open, and be careful.
Thanks Luke for this important update!
Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.
Riverwalker
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Good Economic Assessment
This is an important read for all of us.
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf
fyi the following gets my attention most everyday, regardless of investments in PMs, tangibles or paper. Cause after all, it is all about the money and who stands to gain from its manipulation.
http://www.jsmineset.com/
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
http://market-ticker.org/
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
http://mikefolkerth.com/
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
and here is one I check every couple of months. it is from Europe so they give a little better read of things as it seems the Continent across the pond is much freer with respect to more disclosure and news reporting. These guys have been pretty much on for the last few years.
http://www.leap2020.eu/
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/martin-armstrong.pdf
fyi the following gets my attention most everyday, regardless of investments in PMs, tangibles or paper. Cause after all, it is all about the money and who stands to gain from its manipulation.
http://www.jsmineset.com/
http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm
http://market-ticker.org/
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
http://mikefolkerth.com/
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
and here is one I check every couple of months. it is from Europe so they give a little better read of things as it seems the Continent across the pond is much freer with respect to more disclosure and news reporting. These guys have been pretty much on for the last few years.
http://www.leap2020.eu/
Monday, February 9, 2009
Good Place for Reloading Materials
It has been very difficult to locate the materials I need for reloading .308 to keep my ladies happy. They are hungry girls that is for sure.
Last I checked Midway and other big names were out of stock and no backorders.
But this place had what I needed:
http://www.powdervalleyinc.com/
It was about a 2 week turnaround but better than nada!
Keep your powder dry and your eyes open!
Pickdog
Last I checked Midway and other big names were out of stock and no backorders.
But this place had what I needed:
http://www.powdervalleyinc.com/
It was about a 2 week turnaround but better than nada!
Keep your powder dry and your eyes open!
Pickdog
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Will Refiner’s Struggles Lead to Higher Gasoline Prices?
”Will Refiner’s Struggles Lead to Higher Gasoline Prices?
February 5, 2009 6:54 AM ET
By Tom Waterman
New York, NY—After 4th quarter earnings reports confirmed how bad the downturn in the U.S. and European refining sectors has been there is a concerted effort underway to cut costs at every corner. The real danger looking beyond 2009 is that expansion and upgrading projects are being delayed and in some cases indefinitely postponed.
Already there are questions being asked on Capitol Hill about why retail gasoline prices are rising even as crude oil has fallen so sharply in recent months. The answer is very simple. Refiners that had been producing gasoline at a loss in the latter part of 2008 have been cutting back on overall utilization as well as deemphasizing gasoline production in favor of more profitable distillates.
Refinery utilization rates in January averaged below 84% for the first time in a very long time. In fact the American Petroleum Institute says that overall in 2008, refinery utilization averaged 84.9%, the lowest rate since 1988. The API also calculates that gasoline demand fell in 2008 compared to the prior year by an unheard of 3.3%. It may be even higher once the Energy Information announces official data sometime in April, 2009, and it marks the first year-over-year decline in gasoline demand since 1991.
With the ethanol mandate requiring 11.1 billion gallons of ethanol blended into gasoline in 2009, one might think that gasoline demand could slip further this year. That is a possibility but further “demand destruction” will be dictated by how deep the economic recession cuts.
Frankly, efforts underway to lessen the impact of reduced demand for products will alter the supply/demand equation during 2009. Valero, the nation’s largest refiner has already cut back to about 75% of capacity, and there is no reason to believe that the company will change that pattern unless profit margins improve. Others are certain to follow, which could keep utilization rates at historically low levels.
Naturally there will be some refiners that try to take advantage of improving margins—which are substantially higher this month than at any time since September, 2008, but have a long way to go to convince refiners to boost overall output.
There will have to be signs that gasoline demand is picking up. Perhaps the first sign came yesterday when the EIA reported that “implied demand” ticked higher by 4.2%, or 365 million bpd.
That number was startling, given the economic mess we’re in right now, but until we see a few weeks of data like this, it’s too early to declare that demand is coming back.
This is not good news for Houston and the greater Gulf Coast region. In Texas alone there are 25 refineries employing thousands of workers, representing more than 25% of U.S. refining capacity.
I feel it’s too early to bury the industry as these cycles can be corrected in one of two ways. Either demand starts to improve again or production is scaled back until they do. It seems this sector is intent on making certain that margins improve so that it remains at least profitable to operate.
This is a trend we saw as far back as October, and we have no reason to believe it won’t continue. We felt that gasoline would lead the next rally, and that has been the case.
On November 17, 2008, we wrote: “Even as gasoline gets battered again and again, it gets clearer every day that gasoline is going to lead the market higher at some point, and that could very well be after January 1 when the winter begins to wind down and suddenly depleted gasoline stocks become a concern. When we replace the calendar at the New Year, spring does not look so far away.”
Suddenly spring does not look far away and we are in the midst of what some refiners tell us is the largest maintenance period we have seen in years. We just don’t see gasoline production increasing at a rate that we normally see.
We also wrote: “However, the near-term issue is that gasoline prices will rise versus crude oil. The chances that gasoline production worldwide will slow are greater than OPEC’s ability to shave crude production, therefore it makes sense that there will be more than enough feedstock but as refiners cut back on gasoline production, tightness could develop in the U.S. and elsewhere.”
On November 17, 2008, NYMEX prompt WTI settled at $54.95 per barrel while RBOB gasoline settled at $1.1746 per gallon, or the equivalent of $49.33 per barrel, 10.2% under the value of crude oil.
Yesterday, WTI settled at $40.32 per barrel compared to RBOB, which settled at $1.2184 per gallon, or the equivalent of $51.17 per barrel, 26.9% above crude oil. Since then, crude oil has fallen by 26.6% while gasoline has gained 3.7%. We see this trend continuing as spring approaches.
Tom Waterman
Publisher
www.oilintel.com
tom@oilintel.com
Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.
Riverwalker
February 5, 2009 6:54 AM ET
By Tom Waterman
New York, NY—After 4th quarter earnings reports confirmed how bad the downturn in the U.S. and European refining sectors has been there is a concerted effort underway to cut costs at every corner. The real danger looking beyond 2009 is that expansion and upgrading projects are being delayed and in some cases indefinitely postponed.
Already there are questions being asked on Capitol Hill about why retail gasoline prices are rising even as crude oil has fallen so sharply in recent months. The answer is very simple. Refiners that had been producing gasoline at a loss in the latter part of 2008 have been cutting back on overall utilization as well as deemphasizing gasoline production in favor of more profitable distillates.
Refinery utilization rates in January averaged below 84% for the first time in a very long time. In fact the American Petroleum Institute says that overall in 2008, refinery utilization averaged 84.9%, the lowest rate since 1988. The API also calculates that gasoline demand fell in 2008 compared to the prior year by an unheard of 3.3%. It may be even higher once the Energy Information announces official data sometime in April, 2009, and it marks the first year-over-year decline in gasoline demand since 1991.
With the ethanol mandate requiring 11.1 billion gallons of ethanol blended into gasoline in 2009, one might think that gasoline demand could slip further this year. That is a possibility but further “demand destruction” will be dictated by how deep the economic recession cuts.
Frankly, efforts underway to lessen the impact of reduced demand for products will alter the supply/demand equation during 2009. Valero, the nation’s largest refiner has already cut back to about 75% of capacity, and there is no reason to believe that the company will change that pattern unless profit margins improve. Others are certain to follow, which could keep utilization rates at historically low levels.
Naturally there will be some refiners that try to take advantage of improving margins—which are substantially higher this month than at any time since September, 2008, but have a long way to go to convince refiners to boost overall output.
There will have to be signs that gasoline demand is picking up. Perhaps the first sign came yesterday when the EIA reported that “implied demand” ticked higher by 4.2%, or 365 million bpd.
That number was startling, given the economic mess we’re in right now, but until we see a few weeks of data like this, it’s too early to declare that demand is coming back.
This is not good news for Houston and the greater Gulf Coast region. In Texas alone there are 25 refineries employing thousands of workers, representing more than 25% of U.S. refining capacity.
I feel it’s too early to bury the industry as these cycles can be corrected in one of two ways. Either demand starts to improve again or production is scaled back until they do. It seems this sector is intent on making certain that margins improve so that it remains at least profitable to operate.
This is a trend we saw as far back as October, and we have no reason to believe it won’t continue. We felt that gasoline would lead the next rally, and that has been the case.
On November 17, 2008, we wrote: “Even as gasoline gets battered again and again, it gets clearer every day that gasoline is going to lead the market higher at some point, and that could very well be after January 1 when the winter begins to wind down and suddenly depleted gasoline stocks become a concern. When we replace the calendar at the New Year, spring does not look so far away.”
Suddenly spring does not look far away and we are in the midst of what some refiners tell us is the largest maintenance period we have seen in years. We just don’t see gasoline production increasing at a rate that we normally see.
We also wrote: “However, the near-term issue is that gasoline prices will rise versus crude oil. The chances that gasoline production worldwide will slow are greater than OPEC’s ability to shave crude production, therefore it makes sense that there will be more than enough feedstock but as refiners cut back on gasoline production, tightness could develop in the U.S. and elsewhere.”
On November 17, 2008, NYMEX prompt WTI settled at $54.95 per barrel while RBOB gasoline settled at $1.1746 per gallon, or the equivalent of $49.33 per barrel, 10.2% under the value of crude oil.
Yesterday, WTI settled at $40.32 per barrel compared to RBOB, which settled at $1.2184 per gallon, or the equivalent of $51.17 per barrel, 26.9% above crude oil. Since then, crude oil has fallen by 26.6% while gasoline has gained 3.7%. We see this trend continuing as spring approaches.
Tom Waterman
Publisher
www.oilintel.com
tom@oilintel.com
Be aware. Be informed. Be prepared.
Riverwalker
Monday, February 2, 2009
Battery Maintenance
Whether it's in your car, RV, boat, or part of your off grid power system, batteries are important and need regular maintenance. To do this, you need a few things. First off is a battery brush. These make the job of cleaning the crud that accumulates on the terminals and posts quick and easy. To do this, disconnect the terminals, negative first, using the proper tool for the fasteners. Be extremely careful not to touch metal with the tool, especially on the positive side. Also avoid shorting the battery across the posts, or you'll get a crash course in arc welding! Push the brush onto a post, and turn it clockwise. Just a few twists will do it, and when finished, the post will be bright and clean. Use the male brush to clean the terminal lugs.
To prevent that crud from building up in the first place, get some terminal protectors. Don't know how they work, but they do! It's PFM for all you former military folks.... Also, spray those terminals with protectant for even better crud prevention.
Always keep the top of the battery clean. Moisture, crud, dirt, they can all conduct current and cause your battery to slowly discharge. Never leave a battery in direct contact with the ground for the same reason. Place it on a board, rubber mat, or some other dry, insulating material. In a vehicle, make sure the battery is properly secured in it's tray. For boats, RVs, or other purposes, it's a good idea to keep the battery in a marine battery box, which will prevent objects from falling on the terminals and shorting the battery, possibly causing an explosion or fire.
Make sure the battery box is well ventilated. Charging batteries give off hydrogen gas, which is extremely explosive. Always charge batteries in a well ventilated area!
The last thing maintenance wise is keeping the electrolite level topped off. Lots of batteries today are "maintenance free", but if there are removable caps on top, they are not. Use distilled water only when topping off the cells on a lead acid battery. Tap water will cause scale to build up on the lead plates, reducing battery life. And remember, it might go in as water, but it comes out as acid! It will burn you, and eat clothing, paint, and other stuff. Be careful!
For long term storage, it's best to keep the battery on a trickle charger. Never dishcarge a battery below 50%, as this will reduce it's life. Use deep cycle batteries for power systems, and cranking batteries for starting engines. Choose battery size by the amperage required from the intended load. And there ya have it, battery 101!
To prevent that crud from building up in the first place, get some terminal protectors. Don't know how they work, but they do! It's PFM for all you former military folks.... Also, spray those terminals with protectant for even better crud prevention.
Always keep the top of the battery clean. Moisture, crud, dirt, they can all conduct current and cause your battery to slowly discharge. Never leave a battery in direct contact with the ground for the same reason. Place it on a board, rubber mat, or some other dry, insulating material. In a vehicle, make sure the battery is properly secured in it's tray. For boats, RVs, or other purposes, it's a good idea to keep the battery in a marine battery box, which will prevent objects from falling on the terminals and shorting the battery, possibly causing an explosion or fire.
Make sure the battery box is well ventilated. Charging batteries give off hydrogen gas, which is extremely explosive. Always charge batteries in a well ventilated area!
The last thing maintenance wise is keeping the electrolite level topped off. Lots of batteries today are "maintenance free", but if there are removable caps on top, they are not. Use distilled water only when topping off the cells on a lead acid battery. Tap water will cause scale to build up on the lead plates, reducing battery life. And remember, it might go in as water, but it comes out as acid! It will burn you, and eat clothing, paint, and other stuff. Be careful!
For long term storage, it's best to keep the battery on a trickle charger. Never dishcarge a battery below 50%, as this will reduce it's life. Use deep cycle batteries for power systems, and cranking batteries for starting engines. Choose battery size by the amperage required from the intended load. And there ya have it, battery 101!
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